MethodologyJanuary 2026 · 10 min read

Inside the Conviction Score: How We Rate Indian Stocks

Our multi-factor conviction score combines fundamental health, momentum signals, and NLP sentiment analysis from thousands of news sources. A full breakdown of the weights and logic.

#Methodology#Scoring#AI

The MicroStocks Conviction Score (internally called the Micro-Score) is a 0–10 composite rating that synthesises fundamental quality, price momentum, and real-time sentiment into a single actionable number. This article explains exactly how it's computed and how to interpret it.

The Three Pillars of the Micro-Score

1. Fundamental Health (40% weight)

We screen 15 fundamental metrics across profitability, leverage, and capital efficiency. Key inputs include: Return on Equity (ROE), Debt-to-Equity ratio, Revenue CAGR over 3 years, Operating Cash Flow consistency, Promoter pledging percentage, and EBITDA margin trend. Each metric is normalised against sector peers rather than absolute thresholds — a 12% ROE means different things for a PSU bank versus a specialty chemical company.

2. Momentum Signals (30% weight)

Momentum captures price action quality, not just direction. Inputs include: RSI (14-day) relative to sector average, 20-day and 50-day moving average alignment, volume-weighted momentum over 5/20 days, relative strength vs. Nifty Smallcap 100, and 52-week high/low positioning.

3. News Sentiment (30% weight)

We run a fine-tuned FinBERT model (trained on financial news corpora) across 15+ news sources including ET Markets, Business Standard, Moneycontrol, regional Telugu/Marathi business outlets, and BSE/NSE announcements. Sentiment scores are decayed over time — news from 30 days ago has 1/4 the weight of yesterday's headlines. Corporate announcements (DRHP filings, QIP raises, board changes) receive 3× the weight of media opinion pieces.

Score Interpretation Guide

  • 8.0–10.0: High Conviction — all three pillars aligned positively
  • 6.0–7.9: Moderate Conviction — mixed signals, requires deeper research
  • 4.0–5.9: Neutral — no clear edge, better opportunities likely available
  • 2.0–3.9: Caution — at least one pillar is deteriorating
  • 0.0–1.9: Avoid — fundamental distress or severe negative momentum

What the Score Doesn't Tell You

The Micro-Score is not a buy/sell signal. It doesn't account for your personal risk tolerance, portfolio concentration, or macroeconomic scenarios. A score of 8 on a highly illiquid stock may still be un-investable for many retail investors. Always combine the score with valuation analysis and position sizing discipline.

QR

Quantitative Research Desk

Systematic Trading & Multi-Factor Models

Our Quantitative Research Desk specialises in building multi-factor financial models, fine-tuning LLMs on financial corpora, and designing the systematic pipelines that power MicroStocks' AI Committee. The team brings experience from low-latency trading infrastructure and institutional portfolio analytics.

Read our full AI methodology →

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